Fertilizers in 2025: From Volatility to Regulation
Introduction
Fertilizers remain the backbone of global agriculture — nearly half of today’s crop yields depend on them. In 2025, the industry is being tested on two fronts: market volatility and tightening regulation.
Prices have spiked, trade flows have shifted, and geopolitics has added new uncertainty. At the same time, regulators in Europe and beyond are imposing stricter standards on contaminants, carbon, and sustainability performance. In today’s market, success depends on managing both sides of this equation — economic and environmental.
Market Volatility in 2025
The year has been marked by sharp swings in fertilizer prices: TSP has risen by 43% and DAP by 23% since January. China has stepped back into global markets with increased urea exports, reshaping supply and pricing dynamics across Asia. In the Middle East, energy tensions underscored how fertilizers remain directly tied to natural gas supply, raising risks for nitrogen-based products. For producers, traders, and buyers, these shifts translate into uncertainty in contracts, logistics, and costs.
Regulation Reshaping Trade
Beyond the market, regulation is changing how fertilizers are produced, traded, and sold.
The EU Fertilising Products Regulation (FPR) sets strict thresholds for contaminants such as cadmium in phosphates, raising the bar for quality control. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will apply carbon costs to fertilizers — including ammonia — entering the EU from 2026. Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) are emerging as the standard tool to demonstrate sustainability performance across the fertilizer value chain, from production to application.Compliance is no longer optional. It has become a license to operate, and verifiable data is now the currency of access to regulated markets.
What This Means for the Industry
The fertilizer sector is now judged on two fronts: cost and carbon. Producers and traders must not only manage price risks and supply contracts, but also prove environmental performance through accurate, independently verified data. In this environment, trust becomes as valuable as nutrients.
AmSpec’s Role in Fertilizer Assurance
AmSpec supports the fertilizer industry in navigating both volatility and regulation through:
Independent inspection and sampling — verifying weight, quality, and condition of shipments.
Accredited laboratory analysis — covering a full panel of parameters:
Nutrients
Total N Ammoniacal N Nitric N Amid N Total P₂O₅ Soluble in NAC Soluble in water K as K₂O*Contaminants & Impurities
Lead (Pb) Nickel (Ni) Cadmium (Cd) Mercury (Hg) Chromium (total) Chromium VI Copper (Cu) Zinc (Zn) Biuret Perchlorates Phosphonates ChloridesPhysical Properties
Sieve test (granulometry) Density Moisture Caking tendency Organic carbon (C. org)Ammonia expertise — testing and verification for both conventional and low-carbon ammonia.
Sustainability services — including LCA support and CBAM carbon data verification.
Conclusion
In 2025, fertilizers are shaped as much by policy and carbon as by price and demand. For industry players, success hinges on navigating volatility while meeting increasingly stringent regulatory standards.
At AmSpec, we believe quality and carbon are now both line items. With our expertise in inspection, testing, business assurance, and sustainability, we provide the independent verification and certification that makes the fertilizer trade possible and credible.
Visit our Fertilizers page: https://www.amspecgroup.com/sectors/agriculture-food/fertilizers/.
